March 2023. Are you ready for this?

The Unsophisticated investor series: March 2023

Jason Perz

Video link: https://youtu.be/_-wsR9w24YE

The key to building wealth is to preserve capital and wait patiently for the right opportunity to make the extraordinary gains.

Trader Vic (this quote sums up our strategy at the moment.

Table of contents

Part 1 Systems, signals and relative strength.

Part 2 Charts and charts and charts…

Part 1

Part 2

“Success is where preparation and opportunity meet.” – Bobby Unser, automobile racer

Part 2

Critical developments

1. Europe YTD

Commodities

Gasoline. 100 day high. Relative strength.

Silver (purple) Platinum (blue) and gold at the bottom.

A bit hard to see but china PMIs (red line 3rd charts) are rebounding. Is the US bottoming last?

Risk off? Where?

Earnings projections turning back up. (Stock charts)

Copper holding up.

Natural gas might need to cool off… or not, it is natural gas!

Mexican peso and Mexico in general.

Cotton what a fucking band squeeze!

XME metals and mining.

Coffee waking up? Insert bad coffee trading joke.

SLX steel.

XLB materials.

Bitcoin

CTA positioning. Europe and Japan is leading the way.

Morgan Stanley Prime Brokerage highlights that net leverage rose only 1% WoW to 46%, lingering in the 22nd %-tile since 2010 while gross leverage ended flat at 184%. It is important to note that while funds have been hesitant to add large positions within their net exposure, they are nevertheless displaying incremental confidence on the long side, as evidenced by an uptick in single-name buying (single name long exposure as a % of gross exposure rose from ~40th %-tile to ~60th %-tile on a 12M basis). This is still quite relatively low on a 10-year basis, which has been the inverse image of what we’ve seen with shorts as conviction remains high. (MS)

Global liquidity (blue) conditions remain supportive for growth.

Source: Bannister

Source: @alphacharts https://alphacharts.substack.com/p/market-review-220305