Analyzing the key trends, events, and factors that drove market behavior in February 2021. Let's explore the pages of February 2021's trading chronicle together, unlocking the secrets that unfolded in the realm of stocks and investments.
February 01 2021
I’ve brought this up monthly since the inception of this page but the first trading days of each month usually has a bullish leaning. Over 75% of the time.
No one is buying the far OTM options on this anymore. We should see the same violent moves on this stock.
Second thing so I don’t have to keep going over this. Silver can only hit around 10-12% during the day. There is a circuit breaker on all futures. However the miners. Do not.
AG is up 40% again
"If tariffs and restraints on trade are good for a country, then why not indeed for a state or region? The principle is precisely the same. In America's first great depression, the Panic of 1819, Detroit was a tiny frontier town of only a few hundred people. Yet protectionist cries arose-fortunately not fulfilled-to prohibit all "imports" from outside of Detroit, and citizens were exhorted to "buy only Detroit." If this nonsense had been put into effect, general starvation and death would have ended all other economic problems for Detroit's."
I’ve gotten questions about free trade lately and it’s effects.
I wrote a piece on it a few years ago - FEE free trade experiment
We are getting rejection off of this level. A sign for the bulls.
By the way natural gas is up 11% today.
Currency traders. The yen looks majorly set to for a move here.
February 02 2021
GME short interest fell to 53% thanks for playing game over. ime to GTFO. This will revert right to the break out zone. My main thought about this is that I hope regular people come to the realization why this worked the way it did not because they think a bunch of people got together
Why was the set up perfect? Shorting something with over 100% s/o is stupid
If you push against that at all the stock can move violently. Now you’ve figured out a good entry technique. Now figure out how to sell it at the right time
What happened to the silver rally?
Silver margins increased with volatility. The market is as pointed out this weekend 1.42 trillion dollars. But hey what do I know.
So I kept getting questions from people - “When do the shorts have to cover?”
I kept saying they don’t have to
Which they don’t
Now I understand what you were talking about. These people think that days to cover means that the shorts have to cover in that amount of days...
And even though everyone corrected some of these guys they kept their tweets up leaving disinformation up for everyone
I’m not going to dive in to shorting on here. There are many good sources on this. Not to mention any broker besides robinhood that ACTUALLY lets you short so you can understand the process.
Physical premiums haven’t gone down
The battle begins
Here is your lesson in short selling. The thing that I hope people grasp is the fact that short seller actually
Unearth a lot of fraud in the market
Everyone knows the Enron story - Who figured out that they were screwing over the public first... short sellers.
The main point is that everyone is dumb money. The hedge funds included and maybe more so. It’s up to you to understand all the angles of this market.
I see a lot of you are using Blockfi now. What an edge. I have to thank @buylowstayhigh though.
This is interesting. Silver stopped right at the main pivot point
Volatility ranges will be very wide this year. If we stay above the primary pivot at 22. We could hit 33
Thats a lot of new shares
Dollar bouncing off of the R1 pivot
February 03 2021
“in the book Flash Boys, by Michael Lewis, the author takes aim at the inefficiencies of Reg NMS, writing that only sophisticated entities such as high-frequency trading firms and banks with dark pools are poised to take advantage of them. I believe that the core of Lewis’s argument does address the issue of inefficiencies in the market. However, where he and I differ is the availability of those inefficiencies. Lewis argues that because those specific inefficiencies are only available to a select few, the game of investing in the market is “rigged.” It is my contention, as someone who has generated superior risk-adjusted returns over several years (my performance is on full display for readers in Chapter 3), the overall market is inefficient, and the opportunities created from this state are far from exclusive. In my experience, the primary barrier to entry is knowledge (and certainly not access, or a starting account of unobtainable riches, or connection to insiders willing to provide illegal-to-trade-upon information). A lack of knowledge can always be rectified through education. This education need not come from schools—in my lifetime, I have also been educated by mentors, books, military deployment, news articles, conferences, idea dinners, people of all walks of life, art, psychology, philosophy, serendipity, and rigorous observations before/ while/ after actually trading. The Global Macro Edge will outline opportunities in many different aspects of the market. The following chapters will outline the process used to discover and benefit from them. It is my goal by writing The Global Macro Edge that, instead of perpetuating a sense of melancholy about some falsely perceived lack of upward investment mobility, we empower readers to take action and help reconfigure how they approach their investments. I will do this by walking readers through the process that I, an individual who has never had a job on Wall Street, used to responsibly and incrementally utilize a risk budget of $ 100,000 to generate over $ 3 million in profits for myself over a six-year period from 2010 through the end of 2015. These results are verified from my brokerage statements by an established third-party auditor in Chapter 3. All of this trading was done from my living room, hotel rooms, and other places I was able to port my trading workstation. It is my hope readers will conclude the game is inefficient and ripe with opportunity, but far from rigged.”
— The Global Macro Edge: Maximizing Return Per Unit-of-Risk by John Netto, Denise Shull, et al.
It’s interesting to think that they have convinced the public that stocks falling=evil! Being able to buy something at a valuable level is horrible! So when it goes up we are winning. When it goes down it’s manipulation.
Cotton could be the major outperformer in 2021. I keep saying "it is all dumb money" but why?
Whatever was the leading crop of last year farmers plunge in to heavily. With corn and soybeans majorly outperforming cotton will take up less acreage. Not that Cotton did not do well. Most of the farmers that I work with cut down on corn crops this year in favor of soybeans. Right before corn took off. This is all part of the cycle.
Natural gas - Exports out of the united states. We are close to hitting a new high. This is the one major change in the nat gas market since 2016. This is interesting because a lot of countries have stopped exporting natural gas to these levels
BTC. We went over the system this weekend and why I was still long.
This is beautiful. We are still seeing ETH leading as well which is very risk on for crypto. Also when the dollar is holding up but dollar sensitive assets are stronger. That is a good sign that the commodities might win this round again.
AD line is very close to a new high today. A roll over here would tell us something. A new high would tell us something. Patience
This has been a good roadmap for the market.
Junk bonds. The riskiest part of the bond market. 20-30 year gov bonds. The safety trade
As the blue line leads, it says the market is in risk on mode. As it lags, risk off. This morning it just made a new high
Soybeans
Soybean Meal. Today its getting above the 10 EMA. Fundamentally ags could run further in 2021
The Nok has been one of my main currency holdings for awhile. I have been trying to find a new entry. This is very close to it
Europe
China
US
Copper, aluminum and steel miners
US financials
Eruope Financials
japan long term
Brazil
Russia
This should slow me to share this with you guy. Let me know if it won’t let you watch it. But, don’t take my word for it. Listen to what Tony Greer has to say about this situation - "Money Incineration" in Stonks, "Champagne and Caviar" for the S&P 500
February 04 2021
There are stores in my area that call me when they have something no one will buy and it’s silver. So they give me it for super cheap. At the end of the day the melt value is EXACTLY the same - 99.9
The vix is ruthless. 100% move reversed in a matter of days.
For the first time since COVID-19 hit #gasprices, the national average is poised to surpass year ago prices in the next 24 hours. $2.46/gal today, $2.464/gal one year ago. Gas buddy data.
Coffee prices are tied to BRLUSD prices most of the time. When we see that coffee prices are holding up well even though the Brazilian real is in a down trend
This is a sign that Coffee prices could head higher.
Just to clarify, that’s not an indicator at the bottom. That’s the Nasdaq advance decline which is invisible so the red line above that should be there is gone. The blue Line that you see is a moving average
All signs pointing up still. Yes that sounds crazy, that is the market. Week 1 of each month is usually bullish.
Cotton made a major move today
February 05 2021
“Between stimulus and response there is a space. In that space is our power to choose our response. In our response lies our growth and our freedom.”
-Victor E Frankl
Learning feels like work to most of us. Learning how to learn can illuminate our lives and create confidence. Most of the time when humans are fearful it is because of a lack of understanding. Even in a bad situation, knowing the steps to get out of it can be incredibly helpful. This obviously transfers in to trading.
Learning feels like work to most of us. Learning how to learn can illuminate our lives and create confidence
Most of the time when humans are fearful it is because of a lack of understanding
Even in a bad situation, knowing the steps to get out of it can be incredibly helpful. This obviously transfers in to trading.
Very short read but it can help you to start the journey. Arguments between people constantly consist of straw man arguments these days. Understanding how to debate and communicate will only help all of us
There is a reason why trends exist. There is a reason why humans are easily led in certain directions.
Hegal created the Hegalian dialectic for this reason
Problem, reaction, solution.
Ever since the days of Edward Bernays we have led the publics reaction through news outlets
Page one in his book. Bernays was also Freud's nephew. Using his influence and the influence from the book the crowd to mold public opinion
Adam Curtis made a great documentary with him where he brags about all of these things before he dies for the BBC.
4 great books on this subject in case you want to dig deeper.
3 pushes to a low. A higher low that created an inverted head and shoulder bottom. Now it is breaking out.
Now we have the whole set up. Fundamental and technical.
Russell new high. "It's a bull market"
Cancelling the pipeline is bullish oil. You cant compete with transfering oil using gravity. If you do it another way you burn tons of fuel transporting it which will drive the cost of oil higher
I think anyone can see this but mainstream publications are saying the opposite
The cost of this gets passed to the consumer.
Exxon on the other companies will come out on top. Exxon just spent 3 billion on a system to help companies manage their carbon footprint.
They will lobby hard in the future to be in charge of all of this and big oil will become big green and the people will have no clue that it even happened.
March lumber another new high.
FDX the main transportation stock finally looks ready to turn around
The most risk on sector is at a new high. Like I keep saying, I cant get too bearish until this breaks down or oil or copper or small caps. Im just not seeing it
ZB 30 year bond... still falling
Futures traders. Orange juide has a very bullish fundamental set up. Just put in a double bottom
Frong month corn
2022 corn
This is a crazy rare set up when the ag markets are in contango. These far out contracts will catch up and it might be violent. We are barely at the high from 2020 in the 2022 contract.
Very few people understand how and what is going on with the system. Chris Cole knows it better than anyone
Watch his interviews. Read his papers
Hope you all had a good week. I’ll write the weekend report when I have time.
Futures account ended the week at a new high after take back January. Basically meaning I was up 21% in Jan and ended up being up 6% to end the month. Just cleared that high to end the week
Catastrophic stop (meaning the cost if all stops are hit) is 19% which is tighter than January. First week of February was a 16% gain.
January with all the volatility it was at 29%
February 06 2021
February 07 2021
$TWTR 12.3%
$CSCO 5.6%
$LYFT 9.1%
$NET 9.8%
$EXPE 7.7%
$GDDY 8.2%
$HUBS 9.1%
$SPG 8.1%
$ENPH 16.2%
$MAT 9.9%
$UBER 8.2%
$DIS 5.0%
$ZG 12.5%
$ILMN 6.7%
$DXCM 9.9%
$YETI 8.9%
$CGC 12.4%
$CRSR 22.0%
$GT 8.4%
$COTY 17.2%
Implied moves for earnings.
TLT against SPY weekly
KRE against spy
Small caps AD line
Equal weight SPX on bottom. SPX on top
Common stock AD volume
High win rate system
Very bullish week - next week
Hard red winter wheat futures
Coffee the brazilian real has put major pressure on this one. That can change at any time
Lumber curve looks very similar to corn
ETH against BTC
Added chart, Posted the wrong indicator.
something TA traders need to stop doing
Calling every triangle a wedge. It is very important to understand that when you are in an uptrend. Every pattern is most likely a continuation pattern. If you are in a down trend every pattern has a higher probability of being a continuation pattern
Japan has been a major winner. 31000 next target
Anyone able to code indicators on here? I have a new one I need some help with
February 09 2021
Want to hear a crazy price prediction for oil this year that my fundamental model just came up with? - 89
By the end of 2021, OPEC would have to change what they are doing to change the trend
In the short term (1-2 months) - 62
I know it’s not a commodity many people trade but there are nickel miners
I keep hearing that this looks exactly like 2020 lol. Lets look at the difference.
KRE the same as 2020 or different
Small caps the same or different
EEM the same or different
Copper the same or different
Biotech. The same or different
Breadth the same or?
Equal weight SPX on the bottom with a higher high now. Does this look the same or? In Feb it put in a lower high. There is a reason for going through all of these weekly
JNK to TLT the same or?
I have been trying to get my thoughts more organized which has led me to this brain model. This will be helpful
That’s ruthless and it looks like the vix
There is a reason
February 10 2021
Will be looking in to picking up some more corn. Dec 22.
Platinum is on fire. Literally.
Sugar
Yen ABC right to the 200 day. Nice set up
Soybean crush gray line soybeans blue line
February 11 2021
Ready for 22 dec corn.
Natural gas looks fucking amazing fundamentally over the next 10-12 months.
Crude chart by cornerstone futures. Amazing
Looks like a vix pop is coming
Still have the same thought that any dips will be short lived. AD line is confirming that outlook
For you stock traders. Plug is set up
Defense
XME metals and mining
FCX and CLF continues to be our favorite holding from that one
XHB
Weights
COPX copper miners
OIH
HAL RIG NBR being our picks
XBI I would be stupid if I did not bring up my biotech call. It has been an awesome trade. It could easily continue to lead the way and we will stay long until we get a sell signal. However, it is not my favorite US sector for 2021.
SILJ
FSM, NGD, AXU, AUY, PAAS being our picks from the etf
LIT another sector we like but we are sticking to broad exposure for now
EEM
Russian fertilizer company. Companies, are where I am focused. Ag in general and a few nickel miners... NILSY being the main one
Vietnam. The currency is called dong. Enough said
URNM
Anyways I am doing a write up for 2021 today So I am going through some of these. I wanted to point to some of the sectors Im long or interested in. You see a theme that we are headed in to a stagflationary period.
Even the US sectors, I will start rotating those out of the united states at some point as well
Oil majors are also a great area to pay attention to right now
XOM, COP, OXY, MRO is our focus areas
And yes I have been pounding the table for awhile on the bottom in energy.
I am not sure if XOM is where it takes off. However, I think that this time will be looked at as a generational buying opportunity in the sector.
One more. I think most traders will fight the last battle. I think they will constantly go after banks in any draw down.
Which will lead to the banks having a great recovery
The big banks are much healthier then they were years ago
12 February 2021
Industrials. This rally reminds me of the April, may, june rally
Very hated. A lot of cash on the sidelines
"What are the characteristics of bad traders? They have no process.They make their decisions emotionally and are incredibly impulsive, which is why they are swayed by panic and end up buying near highs and selling near lows."
- John Netto
"The interesting thing about this is that you can fade yourself
The opposite of a bad trader is a good trader
Sometimes not losing is every bit as important as winning."
- John Netto
13 February 2021
Futures portfolio-Performance: Ended the week at another new high. 16% on week one of feb. week two was 19.2%.
This is abnormal but that’s Trend trading. Take advantage of the major market moves but be ready to give some of it back.
Catastrophic stop widened to 23% as volatility expanded
When gains come easily we have to realize that they can always leave just as easily.
I think some of these ags are going to make a major gap at the open. This gap is buyable
14 February 2021
NG over 3 dollars and this bitch will fly
Lumber... still long and this is beautiful
Copper
Sugar. Band squeeze
3.5 STD from the 20 week
Ended the week on an outside day up close. Bullish
Heating Oil
Gasoline. Monthly
\\
Energy sector overall still looks bullish. Extended but bullish.
Silver
Gold
Silver to Gold ratio
GDXJ to GDX
Bitcoin system
ETH to BTC
Part 2-Intermarket analysis
"John Murphy notes that chartists can use these relationships to identify the stage of the business cycle and improve their forecasting abilities. There are clear relationships between stocks and bonds, bonds and commodities, and commodities and the Dollar. Knowing these relationships can help chartists determine the stage of the investing cycle, select the best sectors and avoid the worst-performing sectors."
TLT SPY
Weekly
Part 3 breadth, sentiment and sectors
EEM:DOW monthly
EEM:DOW weekly
TRAN:DOW weekly
DOW:SMALL CAPS
JNK:TLT
Gold miner breadth divergence
Deflationary sectors are terrible
Coffee and a few additions
Platinum up 10% on the week
Cocoa
Lumber, homebuilders and so on. I keep calling it a raging bull and it is a raging bull
Another sector we are long is the producers.
February 15 2021
NG gapped over 3 and over consolidation. Solid signal.
Here is the audio from November 1st.
I know a lot of people don’t trade nickel but the miners and nickel futures could be the trade of the century
XOM >ExxonMobil is initiating shutdown of its massive, 570,000 barrels per day, Baytown, Texas refinery near Houston, amid operating problems tied to a severe cold weather pattern blanketing the Gulf Coast. -ENT
HollyFrontier's 140K barrels per day El Dorado, #Kansas Refinery has been mostly shut down. "Its pandemonium here, " one person familiar with refinery operations said. Most of the plant's units have been cut back and "all are fighting freeze ups," he said-ENT
Motiva 610,000 Bpd Port Arthur, Texas Refinery Shut Down Underway Amid Arctic Blast
The updates continue. Oils already on a run. Needed a push to all targets
TEXAS REACHED WINTER POWER DEMAND RECORD OF 69.2GW ON SUNDAY
February 16 2021
URNM Dont get fancy when the trend is up
KRE monster
XLF
XLE treading water but up
OIH the oil etf area we like the most
$ZB_F I want to talk about something. It was inspirational during the crash and still helps me trade to this day.
Banks M top short
Put options Feb 2020
Lumber buy signals one and two
Bitcoin buy signal in sept 2020
This is not to show my good trades its getting to a point about being able to see big winners and why I feel like I was able to see them better this year
Buffets 13f shows a stake in chevron
Druckenmiller owns a coal stock.
February 17 2021
CAD looking for a break out
Remember when the cotton trade was kind of laughable
FED'S DALY SAYS THE PRESSURES ON INFLATION ARE DOWNWARD
February 18 2021
“Tilt originated as a poker term for a state of mental or emotional confusion or frustration in which a player adopts a less than optimal strategy, usually resulting in the player becoming over-aggressive.
I fade my own FOMO a lot lol.
Something to keep in mind and this will be reminiscent of one year ago
Late feb is nasty. Almost always
Once again price action will dictate everything
February 19 2021
Interesting reversal candle.
That’s a freight train
Dollar
Hogs
Winter wheat leading. KC is the most effected grain because of this and the price is telling us that the next grain report will say the same.
Looks like a bottom but we want to see the AD line make a new high
No such thing as a triple top
Copper miners
OIH resistance becoming support
ITA defense
We were looking for this signal. (Posted this weekend) And it finally happene
10.7% up on the week. 28% percent to catastrophic stop now as volatility increased.
Major week for oil and copper as our growth and inflation outlook continues.
20 February 2021
MSFT healthier than the rest of the faangs
Except for... GOOG
IBM
Dow theory charts
21 February 2021
XLE SPY
Certain well known chartists keep pointing to the highlighted zone to show how weak gold is and has been. Yes, it has been weak but lets look at it from a very long term view.
longer
Gold against nasdaq
XLK:QQQ
Copper to gold ratio and the ten year yield
Bull bear indicator
Ideas
Soybeans, still long but it looks ready for another move up.
Corn monthly. Similar set up still long. Ready to move
...Corn we talked about 2022 Dec corn. Just starting to break out
corn front month for reference
March coffee last week we were looking for a new buy signal. Got it last week. We really need to get out of this zone
Cocoa. We want to see a failure pattern. (oops pattern)
Gasoline oil and so on. Still holding. Fridan was a deleveraging day. April moved to the front month for oil and margins increased by 500-1000% depending on the broker. People might be move in to the later contracts this week.
And we should head to our primary target
...Nat gas
Still holding, one thing we dont know is the fallout. What is the fall out after last week in ags and energy. We wont know this for awhile.
Platinum, still holding
Palladium. Low volatility leads to high volatility
Live cattle and oil in orange
T bonds. Still short
Bonds quarterly since 79
15 Kansas city winter wheat. The most effected area from this
30% of key winter wheat areas were exposed to winter kill. As snow cover underperformed the forecast
The Kansas winter wheat crop is rated very poorly relative to history given the very poor planting season and dormancy season due to drought.
After last year as we had a terrible season, I think it ends up with much higher wheat prices. - Drought continues to plague kansas winter wheat feeling the hit
...As people fight to plant more corn, soybeans, wheat... certain commodities are fighting for more land.
I think the forgotton ones will really win. Palm oil, canola oil and so on. Some of these are going to be completely forgotton about but will be needed.
sugar, still long
copper
Nilsy the nikel miner
Class 3 milk futures. The back to school play
Bitcoin still long
Holding
Russell from the laggard to the winner
Jets ready to trend but oil will start putting pressure on this sector.
Aerospace and defense is a very similar sector
solar ETF
XLE TAN ratio
Finally lets talk about the energy trade.
natural gas wells froze over. "freeze outs" not able to get enough power. Texas moved off of coal power. Wind turbines froze. What if this continues like we are thinking - My notes
22 February 2021
Something we went over but I’ll talk about it again. Option expiration week (this week) in feb has a bearish leaning. The markets are not saying that there will be a nasty pull back yet. But seasonality says we could expect turbulence
Love these
Hard red winter wheat. We want to see the price hold this break out.
March lumber... WTF
Transports broke out
Solar broke down today
23 February 2023
Very nice set up in soybeans today. Volume is trending up. RS against the SPX is moving up and breaking out before the break out. The bands are very tight.
Love this set up
Very short term people always talk about gold like it is a terrible thing to buy and hold. I have always found that to be absolutely insane.
Just watching the tape. Looks like we could see a turn around Tuesday today. Look for some upside in the broad market today from these lows
On ES futures I would look for a move above 3880 to confirm
A mix of safety and risk on. Utes, reits, staples leading, Financials, energy and builders not far behind.
Interesting market here
Expiration weeks have the potential for sell offs. Liquidity gets tight after option expiration week. This leads to reversals, pull backs and general volatility.
OMG the commodity rally is extended. Better sell it before it crashes.
Oh, wait. JK. lol
February 24 2021
TOLL SAYS 25% OF BUYERS ARE FIRST TIMERS
TOLL SAYS DEPOSITS UP 34% IN FIRST 3 WEEKS OF QUARTER
TOLL SAYS IT WILL DELIVER MOST HOMES IN HISTORY IN 2021
TOLL BROTHERS SAYS ORDER GROWTH WAS RECORD HIGH
Raging bull
We keep talking about lumber raging bull. Allow me to speculate a bit...
Usually these sectors will rise rapidly at the beginning of an inflationary environment but as any human will understand we will run in to a point where prices will put too much pressure on commerce and this is where we hit stagflation.
Which is still my long term outlook.
At the moment rates are still historically low and at a 0% interest rate a trillion dollars isn’t that expensive. Lol
But as they tick up to fight this (watch the fed for clues 2022 most likely) and interest rates rise. This will cause an unwind of some of these trades.
For now... the melt up continues in homes, home builders and so on...
New Home Sales 4.0% v 0.9%
Speaking of which...
I started pounding the table on OG oil stocks. I’m sure I bring it up weekly but it’s because I really believe it’s a generational buying opportunity in that sector. It’s a hard sell because people think they are so hated. Which is great. That is what I meant by we are seeing a complete sentiment wash out.
The junior miners are majorly outperforming.
To say it’s been volatile would be an understatement lol. However most of the time I will look at it and see that we are making higher highs and higher lows. Junior gold miners are leading.
The new regime where no one cares about letting the dollar crash. This is why we got so bullish on commodities. The fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place. They cant shift. As you all have seen many times, the second the dollar rises the market falls.
YTD look at the major outperformance in the commodity related sectors.
1 quick update on the ag markets and the winter kill events
This has been a theme for awhile. Staying long the grain markets as farmers continue to sell thinking that this has gone to far.
feeder cattle futures
Cotton
dont forget about natty
UUUU uranium miner. Very volatile sector. Very hard to trade but there is a lot of upside potential still
Commodities are hot!
25 February 2021
John Netto and I will be talking around March 10th now. This is going to be a ton of fun
Interviewing a very influential trade. Also a market wizards.
So true.
GDXJ leading
So far we are breaking out ad moving higher. SOYB is the etf. YK is the mini future contract which is 14k at 5-10% margin depending on the broker. full size contracts are ZS is 71k. I will try to continue to post more info on the contract sizes as I am getting questions about it
By Jim grant
Just a note for myself to do an audio on stagflation and the panic out of US dollars, bonds and markets. Also why I’ve been so against big tech in this environment.
February 26 2021
Elon’s being a real dick lately LOL.
Something to pay attention to today. As we get a counter trend bounce in bonds
Which sector is up the most? - Tech
The biggest laggard. Understanding bonds is a big factor in your models.
Bitcoin hit a new low and got rejected. Bullish signal. We need to see follow through
Last week of feb. I find it easier if I know what to expect.
The last week of February is always a nasty ride. Something we have been looking for, for a few reasons. Seasonality.
Also our cycle map said there would be a good buying opportunity in March. As traders we can not blindly buy or blindly sell. Finding the right opportunities and following our plans is above all else
I can’t remember the traders name but I always loved this line - You can’t control the waves but you can learn how to surf.
Natural gas looks like it’s putting in the reversal bottom we were looking for.
On days like today. It is always important to zoom out
Weekly update. February month end return was 40.8%. After having a few insane weeks of returns. This week was down 11.6%. YTD we are up 44.5%. Great month. Rough week. Distance to stop loss for the entire portfolio is 12% which moved closer as the commodity positions, Bitcoin and others were pressured today.
This weekends update will be more of a macro overview of what I do here. How you can incorporate in your own trading as a tool. I hired a transcriber and another person to build a website. So that will come in to play in the next couple weeks.
27 February 2021
I have been mentoring a kid that has been learning to trade for about a year now. He just started trading futures. Because of the leverage in futures the gains are larger but the draw downs can be larger as well.
Today he told me he lost 60% of his account. He built his positions up to a massive size as he was winning and putting together 200-300% years is great but the lesson I try to show here is that I’m not just sending trades every week.
Position sizing is number one.
Number two is protecting profits
Using stops and so on. Number 3 is treating it like a business
My goals are to at least put together 30% every year. Which outperforms most hedge funds. Warren Buffett and so on. At the same time I’m not running billions of dollars so it gives me a slight advantage so 30% sounds right.
So I grind that first ten percent trading small. Then hoping to hit twenty and then 30%. Now once I’m at 30% I can push a little harder. I call it home run mode. Last year some of the event driven commodity trades had that characteristic. This is how I get my 100-200-300% years.
I understand that when you are growing your account you think of taking small amounts of money and turning it in to a million overnight but it’s a long process. But it will come. Just don’t bet everything on one idea.
February 28 2021
We added defense stocks last year. The restart of the war machine was approaching. Inflation also breeds wars. Think about it this way, if I control all the drugs in the world. What is one thing I have to do to create strife. Take heroine from 10 dollars to 20. If you want to create global turmoil and civil war, just raise the prices.
Bull bear lines still trending up. Breadth is flat.
Overall we are still seeing signs of risk off in the market. Oil and copper are leading the market. Risky sectors are holding up well. We went to see this pull back turn around by tuesday to confirm.
Comments