Analyzing the key trends, events, and factors that drove market behavior in January 2021. Let's explore the pages of January 2021's trading chronicle together, unlocking the secrets that unfolded in the realm of stocks and investments.
January 01 2021
Puru is a growth investor who also uses a trend system to hedge. I’ve always enjoyed what this guy does. Over 5 years he has put together an average around 100%
January 02 2021
Bitcoin is very close to its primary target of 36k which is where the breakout from the 20k zone would target based on TA. Once again trailing stop. Enjoy the ride.
January 03 2021
BTC system 1... yes still long
BTC system 1... yes still long
BTC weekly
BTC something we talk about here a lot... YOU HAVE NO PREDICTIVE ABILITY so stop trying to pick tops and bottoms as a position/swing trader
Lumber- no one ever says... I need more lumber even though it outperformed BTC this year. Not sexy enough lol
Close to my stop on lumber. I rolled in to the march contract.
Copper still in bullish trend. Also band squeeze that looks like its ready to move higher.
oil still long, holding on to a bullish trend
The curve gives warnings similar to copper, oil and lumber
XBI/Dow healthy risk on
KRE still outperforming healthy risk on market
some of our miner picks from the begining of this month
Silver the move looks early, not late
Silver juniors the strongers one in the pack
Ended last week on a green gold bar. bullish
silver to gold ratio bullish
better picture
HOLDING GOLD for the first 10 days of January has a 74.6% accuracy over 20 years so look for bullish set ups in gold, silver and miners
January 04 2021
Something to keep in mind about crypto. The flood in to eth should continue as they roll out eth futures.
Gold holding above the old highs
OIH with another buy signal
January 05 2021
Can we just leave it at this. EVERYTHING BESIDES COMMODITIES ARE IN A BUBBLE
That’s a trend - Corn
2020 Migration Trends UHaul Ranks 50 States By Migration Growth - Uhaul is still on my long term hold list
Wheat new highs.
Soybeans
Uranium energy and EEM on top
OMG things will be impacted... no shit. This guy has been saying this for 6 months now. I don’t have a problem with John at all but this is an example of what I’m talking about. Miss an entire rally in commodities because... something might happen. No one knows when
Everyday “be careful”. Be careful trading against the trend
All trends stop. Anything can happen. But we try to catch the meat of these moves. So as a trend trader we want to stay bullish until there is no reason to be bullish. Once again we are happy to give back 10-20% after 50-300% moves.
January 06 2021
FED'S EVANS SAYS HE WOULD WELCOME ABOVE 2% INFLATION
*EVANS SAYS VERY DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE OUT OF CONTROL INFLATION - These fucking guys lol
I have had a terrible time calling natty the last couple months. After nailing a major move its given me a ton of fake outs. But this looks like a solid set up. 3 pushes to a low. OBV and williams divergence. On the next pull back to higher low it is most likely a buy.
Similar to when we saw a premium in gold we are seeing a similar set up in lumber right now. This usually leads to more upside
Commodities. They trend - Corn
Media “if it’s a blue wave buy tech” 😱 they are always on point. 10 for 10!
Russell. It was priced in... they said. Ok my saltiness level is at an all time high. I’m going to stop hating lol
It’s nice to not be involved in the news anymore... price actions still bullish... crazy
January 07 2021
The non-aggression principle (also called the non-aggression axiom, or the anti-coercion or zero aggression principle or non-initiation of force) is an ethical stance which asserts that "aggression" is inherently illegitimate. "Aggression" is defined as the "initiation" of physical force against persons or property, the threat of such, or fraud upon persons or their property. In contrast to pacifism, the non-aggression principle does not preclude violent self-defense. The principle is a deontological (or rule-based) ethical stance.
January 08 2021
Major hit to the metals this morning due to rising yields and falling bond prices on the long end. Inflation rates need to outperform yields. Which will happen.
Shaky but healthy
Market still in superior return mode according to the T model
Nasty sell off in the metals today as real yields are putting pressure on the gold price.
This has been interesting when it comes to natural gas prices. Asia is surging on cold winter and a supply crunch. This can roll over here as well
Cool bit of news today - John Netto and I are going to speak exclusively for this group at some point coming up.
Silver and gold should move up now. Leveraged selling is over.
Update on the silver trade - Look at that bounce off of that high volume support bar
Interesting reaction off of the 200 day/40 week MA. I refer to the 200 day retracements as algo city for a reason
BTC update
More new highs today. Breadth is insane
January 09 2021
Advance decline volume stock only
Equal weight SPX on bottom. SPX on top. Equal weight still stronger than SPX. Bullish
Broad AD
since the lows
PMO buy all gave a buy signal this week.
Summation
bull bear indicator
oil volatility
Junk bonds to gov 20-30s
oil leading indicator Still very bullish
inflation/deflation...
The oil break out we were looking for happened. Note the volume bar
what’s the pain trade?
one warning
Biotech
yes bitcoin is still a long but this is parabolic
risk off
risk off
risk on
copper to gold yields in green
January 10 2021
January 11 2021
Bitcoin bought up like crazy at the 10 EMA
"My wife is great, no complaints, Im gonna divorce her and marry a bitch"
Curious to see what BTC does 830-9
In my opinion this is where we should see buying coming back in to BTC. Watch these levels. It would not surprise me to see it move straight up here or move straight to 20k. What I would watch for here is a higher low type of situation on short term time frame
Similar to this. I think there are a lot of people waiting for lower prices. So we could see a major move lower to a value zone
By value zone I am just talking about the obvious. Everyone can see that there is support at the break out around 20k. More below
I would stay bullish if we can close back in that parabolic trend
Dollar is seeing some rejection
Closed back in parabolia. Barely
January 12 2021
We want to see this large range down day hold
January 13 2021
Yields look ready for a hard bounce. This could add some upside to the metals
Yields look for a ready hard bounce. - Counter trend bounce. Meaning to the downside.
I’m looking for the market to start move towards an operation twist. Rather than looking for the fed to say it. I want to see the short end move towards the long end. I don’t think this is happening yet but it’s an opportunity
Right now I’m in a curve steeper trade. Flattening would be the opposite trade.
Risk off environment today. As the curve flattens the banks and small caps are effected
January 14 2021
Banks beautiful bank stocks. Why is this sector the one I go to over and over again when I explian why the market is bullish or bearish.
Look at KRE. Before the major correction in 2018 and the crash of 2020 we see divergence on the KRE
The SPX went on to make new highs each time but the banks did not
We went bullish on the banks in October because of the realtive strength, the yield curve and the banks made a higher low and the dow jones did not.
Think of the spread between the 2 and 10 as the banks on the short end (2's and 3 month) and the lend from the long end plus a premium (10 and 30 year bonds)
Better Illustration
Gold seasonailty week to week
January 15 2021
Options expiration day and ex week into next week. Out T theory map has run its course
Seasonals point to some turbulence here as well
Check the date - Jan 18
BTC possible lower high. Careful here.
January 16 2021
January 18 2021
4 similar to silver to gold ratio. We can look at ETH to BTC
weekly
T model
FAANGs slowing down
Slightly positive this week. However there are some warnings as we talked about on friday.
EURUSD
corn or bitcoin? lol. All grains are in contango. This hasn’t happened since 2012!
lumber very close to slipping in to a bearish trend.
Overall thoughts on this week. Bitcoin still bullish but barely holding on to bullish trend. If we break down or up I would follow that direction.
Gold: Last week needs to be the end of the sell off to keep that sector in bullish trend.
Broad market looks strong but sentiment is insane. It is not a bad idea to look at hedging with some of the fangs which are now the weakest sector. Price action is still bullish
one more
January 19 2021
Something to keep an eye on today
4 similar to silver to gold ratio. We can look at ETH to BTC. - We have talked about this many times. Relative strength can tell us what asset we want to trade.
Dollar weekly candles
January 20 2021
Larry Williams the best trader ever
Have I ever said that there is no such thing as a triple top? The test is here
While everyone is paying attention to the new emperor or the leaving emperor. Aka our most gracious sovereigns 🤮
We are seeing the market is at new highs. This has never happened during an inauguration
Useless data but interesting
Building
Cocoa, with a grade A set up. Id keep an eye on this one.
January 21 2021
I always say that I dislike triangles. This is why lol
No new low. But a break down. Not exactly actionable
This is my number one rule. You see this with great traders over and over again. Druckenmiller went from 125% long to short on the day of the 1987 crash
Never marry any idea. You have to be confident in your abilities as a trader. But not confident in ANY position you put on.
January 22 2021
That’s major rejection. Not sure if it goes to new highs but it should challenge 36k (sorry I was looking at future when I said 38)
January 24 2021
2021, cycles, probabilities and possibilities
41 years but this also has many years taken out. I am looking at years that have similar tidals to 2021. This tells us that we are likely to see a buying opportunity in march and september.
Using this map it looks like the time to buy is now for precious metals. and June. Remember. these are very loose road maps. Just like last year I used this to call out the buy point in late october in the stock market
Oil
Credit card delinquency rate
Trailing twelve month S&P 500 PE ratio or price-to-earnings ratio back to 1926
This is not a timing tool but it is something that gives me pause. Either stock prices need to come down or earnings need to rise. This spread can last for a very long time. So I would not try to front run it but it does say that shit can happen.
Historically momentum does not outlast value forever. This could happen this year or next year.
homebuilders taking a leg up
NAZ AD line at a new high
NYAD line stronger than the index
Small cap AD not as strong as the index
NAZ volume still on a fucking mission
The naz is showing signs of leadership again
PMO BUY all on the cusp of bullish and bearish
21 Jan can tell us a lot about the year
This is why I talk about sectors a lot. Staples are the worst thing to own at the begining of a cycle or during an inflationary period
Utes as well
JNK/TLT
Lets go over sectors as this is the most important part of understanding the inside of the market.
copper miners
Semis, when the semis are strong you want to be long
Whats changed about volatility and PUT/CALL ratio
BTC system
Things to look out for tonight - How commodities look at the Asian open
Will they buy this major dip in ags? Also will they buy Bitcoin when futures open
January 25 2021
Lumber will be limit up again today. Day 3
BYND has a major set up today. High short interest
High short interest means that it can have violent moves up
January 26 2021
Hello inflation
Bullish raindrop candle
This is the most honest account of trading that I’ve ever seen - How Long Does It Take to Become a Consistently Profitable Trader?
Phenomenal interview with one of the best trend traders ever - The Meb Faber Show #282 - Salem Abraham, Abraham Trading Company - Managing risk starts with Imaging the unimaginable
I am not interested in the faangs. Because these are the biggest names in the broad market we should always keep an eye on them. They have been consolidating since summer and are starting to make new highs.
That could easily lead to another leg up.
Sugar monthly. Agricultural commodities have made a higher high across the board. $SB_F sugar is targeting the 20 dollar zone. As crude prices rise we could see a move towards ethanol production from sugar cane. The sugar market is holding bullish trend.
January 27 2021
Dollar bounced but repelled again
30 year bond ZB
Bitcoin turning up here
T theory chart could have hit the top. Remember a down jan is a bad sign for the year
This is one of the first signs we got in 2020 that got us to switch sides in to feb and march. To stay long I would need to see stregth coming in to the last couple days of this week
Outside week down closes are majorly bearish.
Commodities are still up YTD and outperforming - Corn and gasoline up 10%
Today is the day to sell put options. As an options seller you need to wait for the right opportunity. Same as a buyer.
NYUD up
NYAD down
January 28 2021
BTC. We got our little bounce trade. Now it is consolidating in a flag but its tightening in to the end of it. This is a good sign but that sign could end up breaking up or down. The next move could be a great risk defined trade.
Stop on the outside of the flag either way. Buy the break
Something that is interesting. This pattern is very rare
When a stock opens down, has a large range and ends up almost in the same place at the end of the day.
If these two names open up tomorrow. If you buy at the open you usually make a good return with tight risk under yesterdays low.
76% win rate.
One more BTC chart
If you have heard me talking about backtesting indicators there is only one divergence that has a high win rate. 10 period W%, which we have right now
Game stop is a very important lesson for traders. I constantly talk about the market in the 1-4 month frame is really a speculative voting machine in the long run you should find good, valuable companies... in the short run. Anything can happen. Study books on crowd psychology. Group think is very real and there is no better data source for studying group psychology than the stock market.
Markets are barely holding positive for the year for now. An up Jan is usually seen as a bullish catalyst for the year
Learn about the January effect. Large cap miners today
Small caps
You guys know what markets aren’t suppressed
Futures. Lol
Can you all keep bidding up the miners and the ag sector. Is corn sexy enough?
This was phenomenal - Top traders unplugged: Why smart people often struggle with systematic nvesting ft. Jerry Parker
January 29 2021
Corn can be sexy
Structure I am looking at for the moment
https://www.instagram.com/p/CKmZgU-Hk09/?igshid=2psbazuwk5qx - You all know I am a ass man but you gotta admit a good break out when you see one
This is fantastic. Thanks Luke.
VVIX is crashing hard. Vix could follow which would lead to a late Friday rally. These month end Friday rallies are getting ridiculous is that happens.
This is the type of volume we like to see at the beginning of moves
January 30 2021
1 Down January’s
But the first 5 days were up. Confusing
The Russell ended up and commodities are up. WTF market
Damnit
GME what happens in a squeeze and how you can see where the moves were going through the options interest. Why the move could be over in the next couple weeks. The media has made this much less complex than it is. The brokers didn’t fuck people over. There was a liquidity crises at robinhood. Let’s go in to that a bit more.
January 31 2021
BTC long short system. Bitcoin has moved so much that a log chart also looks like shit
let’s talk about the silver squeeze
short interest
SLV shorts
COT data commerical producers are heavily short because thats what they do... retails and hedge funds are heavily long because... they always are
T model we have been pointing to this time to head in to a point of correction
bounce zone
the large cap faang stocks are stronger. Yes it was outperforming on the way down but that is saying something
This could lead corn and sugar to reprice higher. The USDA report is underestimating corn demand already. And with China buying so much ethanol this could be a HUGE move in that market
A billion bushel carry out hasn’t happened since 2010-2012. This could easily lead to 6 dollar corn
2010 to 2013 period we had La Niña and this same premium in that period. Long term corn and sugar could have further to go
FARMERS SHOULD BE HOLDING GRAINS BUT THEY ARE SELLING. This leads to these massive mispricings that lead to major bull runs. We will go to the charts in a moment.
Note to self natural gas, shale production, Biden admin. We don’t have record storage in Nat gas and production is declining
natural gas, shale production, Biden admin. We don’t have record storage in Nat gas and production is declining
explain corn cash basis
Winter wheat at risk
Apologies about the length on this but a lot needed to be said on what’s going on. At the same time, I absolutely don’t want to lose focus on the long term goals of the funds
So I needed to take time on our ag trades
Silver should gap up 2 dollars at the open
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