Analyzing the key trends, events, and factors that drove market behavior in March 2021. Let's explore the pages of March 2021's trading chronicle together, unlocking the secrets that unfolded in the realm of stocks and investments.
March 01 2021
The US dominant ags are set up well coming in to this week. If we are going to start hearing about weather events effecting ags. It will happen in the next two weeks
Cotton, wheat, cattle and so on.
We have enter March. On our models combined with general seasonal patterns. We think that March could have a buying opportunity in it. Please check out the Jan 23rd weekend report. The presidential cycle charts are from Larry Williams.
MSOS pure canibus ETF will open with a buy signal this morning
Coffee chopped around for awhile but now it has taken out the old high. Next resistance 143.
Got the pattern in cocoa last week still seeing follow through. Maybe it will hold this time.
Last friday we talked about bitcoin getting a rejection signal. Today we want to see BTC close above the white 10 EMA above 48532.
March 02 2021
Patience today with oil and energy because of opec.
From Bruce Kovner
Sugar put in a reversal signal today.
Commodities across the board look like they have bottomed.
March 03 2021
Weights for portfolios and futures will be added to the letter.
XLE up today again. With the market down.
The market is not pointing to any a twist or YCC yet. Everyone is looking for powell to talk about it Tomorrow.
EGO Eldorado gold corp just came in to a buy zone today and it is reversing off of the zone.
March 04 2021
Voice messsge on where we are at today, how I’m not a big fan of how crowded the long side of the trade has become. Tightening up stops on futures. Long term portfolio, no change.
Top 3 leaders are energy stocks.
I always say how it is important to understand the general structure of the market.
This is how heavily weighted the SPX is in tech stocks. This is why it can fall as energy and other sectors rip higher.
The market looks completely different if you remove the market weighted and look at the equal weight (RSP bottom chart). We had a very thin rally on the way up. Now it is broad but technology is bloated.
See how the equal weight underperformed and now its finally outperforming.
Price does not lie - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-market-counts-down-critical-234144893.html
March 05 2021
Platinum and copper are at the bottom of their implied moves. Good add points.
Both sitting on heavy support/high volume zones.
Am I spooked by Powell’s remarks... no not at all. The fed is always behind the curve and always leans on the side of inflation... why?
One word. DEBT.
They can not raise rates like they did in the 70s anymore. They can barely stop the printing press
Still cautious at the moment. (Smaller positions, moving up stops well in to profit). But sticking to the plan.
Dollar in a failure zone.
If we do take another leg up, the Dow stocks will be the one to lead it. I haven’t said this since... I’ve never said that lol.
Russia with a great set up today. Up 2% during the market sell off.
Yearly ranges are important. Similar to the opening range I talk about a lot but more significant.
YTD here is the range we want to see hold.
What a sentiment wash out lol. Nothing changes price like sentiment.
Damnit I said that backwards lol. Nothing changes sentiment like price
Price is down for a couple weeks and everyone became depressed. Reminds me of late 2019, everytime the market would dip 5% everyone would get extremely bearish.
Russell held the 10 EMA
On the daily it was rejected from the lows in the flag pattern. Another bullish signal.
Finally one of my favorite short term signals. Failed break down (oops). The most powerful patterns in TA are usually the failed patterns.
A lot of reversal bottoms today. Strong fridays lead to... strong Monday’s. Usually
The reversal in the NAZ today is interesting, will yields take a rest here. If they do the naz might lead again. If they are flat to down that won’t be the case.
My projections and models are saying that would be short lived if anything but worth noting the possibility of that over the next few weeks.
I still think there are much better places to put your money. Like small caps, micro caps, financials, energy, mining, coal, transports, shipping... I could go on LOL.
After a few crazy up weeks in February we had a shake out last week. This week was pretty flat which was nice considering all of the volatility thanks to my concentration on the strong sectors. Ended the week up 4.1%. Catastrophic stop at 17%.
March 06 2021
Against All Odds-March 6
Blue section-Don’t forget the plan:
Equities - Cautiously bullish - as always risk management is key. No switch to a bearish posture yet but sticking to the strongest sectors and indices. Small caps, Energy, financials and commodity based countries.
Do not cap the upside by taking profits on the way up. I will be holding on to my positions. All of my positions are well into profit since these trades started in October/November.
Understanding our framework.
Our narrative, crowd psychology, trading regime and technical models have to link up with our trade horizons. The trade horizon I look for is the intermediate term trends. 1-6 months is my general trade time frame for futures and the ideas behind those trades usually last much longer. 6 months to 16 months is my general time frame for my long term portfolio. In a world of instant gratification I think that finding these major swings while everyone is trying to trade for the month end or quarter end has enormous potential. You can also use what I do to stay on the right side of the trends in the shorter term while I stick to this timeline. This also means that our stops have to be wide enough to disprove our hypothesis.
The market cares about the rate of change of macro data. So, we care about the rate of change of data as well. The market cares about positioning and sector/asset rotation so we care about those things as well. The market reacts to its ability to discount news so we dig into that as well. The major part of our fundamental framework uses data and intermarket analysis to assess where we are at in the economic cycle. Most of the time the data will lag the intermarket analysis. When that happens we will trust the price action over the fundamentals. At the moment we are in an inflationary/expansionary phase. We think that there will be corrections and at some point inflation will put so much pressure on the market that stagflation is a likely scenario.
At the moment it looks like an asian/commodity country led economic recovery and we are staying away from Europe for the most part. The only way out of this amount of debt in these economies is currency depreciation. Something that these developed economies have not seen in many years but emerging economies have seen this before.
US Sectors
What a reversal when it comes to style factors.
Brazil showing some extreme divergence last week
Major currencies, six months
Major currencies, six months
Yields
Yields
CCC performing much better than High grade debt... still. Risk on?
Intermarket analysis/Dow charts
Intermarket analysis/Dow charts
2. Intermarket analysis/Dow charts
3. TRANSPORTS/DOW. Both at new closing highs
4. Risk on still rules
5. CRB/USB
6. Silver to gold ratio
7. GDXJ/GDX
8. GDX/GLD
9. KRE:SPY SPI in red
10. XLK:QQQ if the FAANGs are going to bounce, it would happen here.
11 CL:SPY Oil SPX ratio. Breadth and sentiment
March 07 2021
1. Equal weight SPX at a new weekly closing high
NYMO bouncing from oversold
NOYAD (Blue). Small cap AD (Red)
Bull/Bear chart holding strong
VIX Model
SPY Seasonality
All signals here point to a short term bottom.
BDI/XME
GDX Breadth. Positions/Trades
BTC system still long from October 7th. What do we really know about the future. Nothing! What you can do is create systems that gets you in at the beginning of trends and out as close to the end as possible. Thats it! Trend following is not the right way of saying it. It's much more.
Bitcoin seasonality
Soybeans. Still long.
Copper-long: inside day
XLE energy weekly-long: Closed over the 200 week MA for the first tie since 2019
XME weekly
KRE A lot of all time closing highs
RSX Russia with a band squeeze break out set up. Buying above 25.72 to confirm.
Wheat. Numbers come out on Tuesday
Lumber. Also in live with the back to school trades.
WOOD. Global Timber and forestry. Long ready to break higher
30 year bonds-made it all the way back to the 200 week MA. Still short.
Cocoa
Cocoa seasonality
Natural Gas Trading like Natural gas
Platinum coming all the way back to value
GDX
Coffee not as bad as it looks
I always like these failed break down patterns
The taget we have been looking at since November got hit but I dont see a reason to close the trade yet.
Dollar
Ending note, lets talk about sentiment.
Some highlights from hedge fund market wizards
March 08 2021
Everyone got short last week
From Shawn Hackett
Equal weight SPX at new highs
GDX putting in a versal bottom. Needs to clear 32.03 to confirm
March 09 2021
Ok this is very interesting. Insider buying in the NAZ has hit a major point
Still not a fan of the naz in this environment but I can't deny that signal.
We have an interesting set up right now. Yields are overbought badly so they need to fall
The dollar is overbought badly as well. This type of set up usually leads to a massive bounce in the precious metals
Bitcoin likes this environment as well
Currencies work well with mean reversion systems. If we get a bounce from the 40 MA (teal line and clear yesterdays high. We will get a buy signal. GBPUSD
WASDE at noon. Working on some new chartlists and editing old ones on stock charts. If you have a stockcharts account let me know and Ill pass it your way
March 10 2021
"The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time."
-Jesse Livermore
Tim just brought up that NG is in a good zone. High volume zone.
March 11 2021
OJ resistance becoming support set up
OJ resistance becoming support set up
OJ resistance becoming support set up
RGR
Good moves in the long term portfolio today
RSX band squeeze break out
March 12 2021
"…given the fundamental factors in place that should support the demand for housing, we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited, and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system.”
–May 17, 2007 Remarks of Ben Bernanke at Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s 43rd Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, Chicago, Illinois
Don’t worry there is no inflation either.
Crop conditions continue to falter.
The back to school trade is working out well.
The miners fell and bounced off of the island. Bullish.
March 13 2021
Week ending March 12th, futures portfolio ended up 11.27%. MTD 14.26%. Up 57.58% on the year. (If anyone ever wants to ask me to see those numbers you are more than welcome to. Transparency is important) Catastrophic stop is at 21%. Which widened from last week as we are working off of some oversold situations.
Everyone has opinions on inflation... this book will give you the background that you need to understand it better than most.
The short update this weekend wont be going over the macro markets. We are going to talk about getting shaken out of your trade ideas.
As traders start they get blinded by the thought of how much money they think they can make. Then after making some they usually give it all back and then some.
The next step is when you know shit. All types of shit. You know things about how to trade, why to trade, when to trade... then you are very timid after you make profits because you live in fear of giving profits back again.
all dates pointed out have significance
Did anyone listen to the bond market in 2018? What was the difference with the bottom then and now?
How we miss trades based on our bias. Then when it gets to a certain level we take the other side of the trade... We all miss trades. How do we move on? Trends on yield curve control
Google trends for operation twist
People searching the term treasury bonds... each of the peaks were at tops. This one? Not sure.
The old, "this has been going on for a long time and it will continue because of this even though I have sell signals, I'll look to buy at support."
Also when do we shift and why
How do we stay interested in a sector after we have got our asses kicked for the last 10 years?
March 14 2021
Don’t get attached to positions just because they have made you money.
When there is a ton of negative news around us. The election, Europe shut down and everyone thinks that the markets going to crash again. Then you get this pattern in oil.
When bonds are trading like it’s the Great Depression
You sometimes have to think that it might not be a Great Depression.
What causes crashes are divergences. This is why we constantly look at breadth, volatility, commodities, sectors... nothing can make every trade work but our goal is to stay on the right side of the trends.
Now you have your idea. The environment went from stagflation to reflation. The market starts hinting at growth. Banks are showing relative strength. How do you trade it? Intermarket analysis is a great hint.
After the macro outlook, the inter market analysis and then taking your backtested signals (once again if you have no idea what your win rate is, you cant properly understand your risk to reward) Now you enter the trade. I entered on the break down of the rising wedge. The red line is an chande stop set to a certain atr. This will change based on your trading style.
Buying high to sell higher and also understanding that we can always be wrong and fully accepting that fact
We talked about this before, being able to hope for the best and expect the worst.
Hopefully someone understands this lol
A couple charts for next week
Small caps coming back
Transports still storng
We need to watch oil here. Up or down.
March 15 2021
In line with the weekend report
As a person who’s done this for awhile, I get the same argument from people over and over again when I say. “Don’t take anyone’s trade ideas including my trade ideas.” From others, you might learn what a process looks like (which is the point of this page, to show what trading really looks like and it’s not always pretty) but you won’t learn a damn thing from someone saying BUY _____ without understanding why they did or when they would get out to the upside or downside.
To make money over and over again you have to understand why. Why do you put on a trade? Your answer can’t be “I wait for a signal from _ on Twitter”
You also don’t want to say. “I put on a trade but someone had the opposite view so I took it off”
You also don’t want self doubt to creep in and say “this person is smarter than me. That’s why he’s on CNBC and I’m not”
If you put in the effort and backtest and really understand your systems. You can beat 99% of the pros.
Things to keep in mind this week.
Expiration weeks are usually bullish.
Bonds usually bounce in late March
Gold usually bottoms in March or April
Best six months for stocks ends in April
And April is one hell of a month for stocks historically speaking.
Seasonality isn’t a 100% thing but it’s good to keep your eyes on it.
Major breadth divergences between NDX, Dow and small caps
Uranium breaking out of the flat and over Volume resistance
Why do I still use the oldest form of technical analysis? Because it works
I always say that manipulation can not be sustained. I don't think many people understand what I mean by that. This is a good explanation
I always say that manipulation can not be sustained. I don't think many people understand what I mean by that. This is a good explanation.
March 16 2021
Bitcoin got a new high and slipped back. It still has major divergences. Couple strikes for BTC
Another high in URNM
NKD dollar denominated Nikkei futures ready to move to a new high
Fully long OJ now as I got a buy signal. We have a run to 130 in the short term. In the long term the projection hits 157
March 17 2021
Currency traders. Brazil is most likely hiking today
The Real could get strong here.
The major ag cycles usually involved the Brazilian real. This is when the ags really take off. They are strong now but the parabolic moves come when the real follows.
Coffee putting I’m a major reversal pattern. We are finally at my short term target. Later than I thought.
I keep getting questions about corn. This is why it’s important to understand the curve. I kept bringing up that I was buying the dec 2022 contract. The front month isn’t losing money but the curve was playing catch up.
Palladium reversal off of the pivot is still moving. Finally breaking out of the range
March 18 2021
Regional banks firmly at ATH
On positioning and the fed
Palladium moving higher
Gasoline, heating oil and oil have hit the bottom of an implied move. All of these are in solid up trends. This is the only time when technical traders should use oversold signals to buy.
Look for upward momentum before buying. I like to use 4 hour chart divergence signals.
Usually when the ROC gets this extended on any product we usually see sideways action. Since the trade entry was awhile ago my trailing stop now is 162.23. Around this point. i would expect things to move in a range for awhile. The long term move is 12 dollars. (bonds are not very volatile which is why you need leverage to trade them well) ZB is the 30 year bond future.
People are still overlooking the transports. Some great names in this
Heating Oil
Gasoline
Oil came down to its monthly pivot
We went though this with BTC
The first sell off usually gets bought but we have to be patient and wait for the right time to jump in
March 19 2021
Week to date US gasoline demand is running 2.8% ABOVE the last pre-COVID week 3/8/20
Gas buddy data
I got some quad witch questions this week (triple witch) now that it’s actually triple witch and not the media talking about it. I’ll explain it.
March 20 2021
I’m not much of a candlestick guy. But has anyone seen gold monthly candle.
March 21 2021
This weeks report will be short as well. I have an interview for our group with Netto on Monday. Also I hurt my knee pretty badly so I am going to just do what I can today and tomorrow.
1. Backtesting, what do we mean by risk and reward
2. I am always talking about what happens when you put your stop too close. This system that beat bitcoin, now, its only up 134% when bitcoin is up over 20000%
3. Lets say your a crazy person and you say, I am going to just enter the second after I get stopped out again and again. You've cut your returns in half
4. This is from chart number one. It is insanely hard to outperform bitcoin. However to just hold on to bitcoin is another problem. You also dont know how you will act when you get a drawdown of 80-95% (which happens) Personally I think holding a bit and trading can be kept separated.
5. Why it’s hard for people to go with the trend. First part of this convo.
6. I always talk about buying the highs and getting out at a certain low. This is one of my gold trend models.
7. Common stock AD volume
8. NYAD and Small cap AD
9. SPX on top Equal weight SPX on bottom. Still leading
10. Vix model. No warnings, yet
11. Bull bear model. Still bullish
12. IWM/Dow
13. Dow/EEM
14. TRAN/DOW
15. BDI XME
16. DBC/GOLD
17. Gold miner breadth. Very productive
18. yields
19. Copper set up
20. Lumber
21. May Lumber
22. PA entry off of the yearly pivot. Add on the break out last week
23. 52 week high signal
24. Oil could have some more upside
25. But we did hit our main resistance zone. We also hit our main target.
26. Plat
27. silver slipping as gold moves up
28. BTC
29. Biotech
30. Uranium Miners
March 22 2021
Most of our big cap energy stocks have signals to add to positions today
Remember when I mentioned that these bounces were good. It shakes out the shorts.
Now the hedge funds (blue line) are net long
Fade that move hard.
March 23 2021
Reasons why I thought we would range for a bit. Major volume shelf. 200 week ma aka algo city
Platinum is a monster. I’ll do that audio note again later today and try to explain that better
Sugar has an oversold implied move signal
Short term traders might know this system. W% oversold and Slow STO is strong. Usually leads to a bounce. Enter over the 10 EMA is the safest way to play this entry.
I am in the hogs contract at the moment (april 21) As we get closer to expiration this spread will tighten quickly and it is extremely extended.
Dont just jump in to a spread trade if you dont understand spread trading
But if you are wondering what I am doing, I am selling the april contract and going long the december contract.
Hogs also have strong seasonality in April. Not saying I would say to buy it now. The trade started in Sept.
March 24 2021
All oversold signals are bouncing hard today. XLE, XLF, XME, oil. The end of march is ually a nasty environment to trade in but...
The end of the best 6 months ends in April. April is the best month in the last 11 years.
March 25 2021
Actionable ideas, the contrarian trade right now is with the trend. We like those odds. Will dig deeper in to that later.
Strong technical set up. 4 down days and on the 4th down day, we have a reversal bar.
Small caps with a possible bottom on a quad witch week. I also got an oversold signal for small caps today. The market needs to turn up here to hold on to bullish trend
Main SPX sectors
Coffee, oversold signal
Being so critical, I am often considered a contrarian. But I am very cautious about going against the herd; I am liable to be trampled on… Most of the time I am a trend follower, but all the time I am aware that I am a member of the herd and I am on the lookout for inflection points… I watch out for telltale signs that a trend may be exhausted. Then I disengage from the herd and look for a different investment thesis. Or, if I think the trend has been carried to excess, I may probe going against it.
~ George Soros
I believe that you want to be a trend follower when everyone is saying THIS MOVE MAKES NO SENSE or when every pull back leads to others saying ITS OVER.
Bull markets climb a wall of worry and bear markets usually fall on hope.
When the price action says to get out. We will. Until then the amount of negative sentiment only confirms my signals. Not that I am in overly bullish mode.
Getting a lot of risk on bottoming signals today
Biotech is bouncing off of its 200 day MA hard
Found this online today. Tons of respect for these guys but this adds to what I was talking about the other week.
March 26 2021
Looking at the environment. The set up... WTI front month over 61.20 could move right back to 65 again
Bitcoin gave a pretty high choppy reading this week. Everytime we get a reading this high it usually moves. The trend is still holding bullish but I really dont like how we made a new high and failed.
Lets see where we end up
Most of the major currencies look very buyable here
AUD CAD NZD MXN GBP
If you are playing the inflation narrative. You need to watch a few currency pairs
The raging bull, homebuilders
Commercials net long nat gas
2. Seasonality
3. The NG set up
4. 15 LNG vessels delayed
I am posting this during the day on friday because I am looking to enter if we move out of this island zone.
March 27 2021
No closing signal on NG
5. According to Pay with GasBuddy data, Friday US gasoline demand rose 0.4% above the prior Friday, a new pandemic high. Week to date, gasoline demand is up 2.77% vs last week, on par to also set a new pandemic high.
6. “Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets.”
March 28 2021
7. What world markets do I watch? This was a question I got last week. Lindsay brought up a good idea the other day. He asked that we post questions to the public room. If you dont have access to the public room. Message me.
8. Germany
9. Singapore
10. Kospi which is also a trade idea for this week. Looking for a break above 3080. If you dont trade futures I believe the ETF is EWY
11. RRG Charts
12. This also helps me understand the bond curve. The short end is leading
13. RRG in the last 5 weeks sectors
14. Gold miners... I dont like this
15. Gold miners leading gold... I do like this
16. Still bearish in the short and intermediate term trends. Bullish in the long term trend. If you are trading it from the long side. Risk is defined. 1690, you'd want to GTFO
17. Silver
18. White 30 year yield, elder bars copper to gold ratio
19. Copper
20. Oil. Hit target. Major hammer candle on this weekly chart
21. CRBUSB Weekly
22. Daily
23. Crude Spreads
24. Still Constructive
25. Lumber
26. How currencies should look in an inflationary environment
27. GBPUSD
28. CADUSD very buyable
29. AUSUSD
30 BTCUSD we talked about the signal this week. Bounced right after. No sell signal and seeing follow through
March 29 2021
Hedge funds are net long the 5 year bond. I will be shorting an overbought signal on the 5 year
ZB 30 year bond. TLT had a 16% implied vol discoint on friday.
40 Or fake out?
Beautiful
I walk the line
All time closing high
SPX AD line
VVIX/VIX
Gold Volatility is very cheap
SGX Rubber futures
To start we will talk about the rotation and the need to be flexible and come back to it at the end
The market is trading like it wants to explode higher
Wheat oversold and putting in a reversal pattern today.
March 30 2021
One thing about global markets - When you get a sell off in the US market. Most of the time the overnight markets will sell off as well. Between 8-830 am NYC is the time you want to pay attention to. This is when traders sit down at their desks.
This is when they will either buy it up or sell it. Today I think-buy.
Mainly, the point isn’t about being right or wrong. The point is... don’t panic when you look at the overnight markets until 830-9am LOL
Euro hit the pivot
What we need to see is the European put in a reversal bar. Like this. At that point, it will be time for an entry.
This is an inflection point. Everyone thinks this volatility will last forever
They think the dollar will go up forever. Commodities are done and so on. Now is the time to look at this and say... maybe not. And use technicals to catch the turn
We updated out long term portfolios last week as China went bearish trend. Added EWT/EWY
March 31 2021
On notice-
Stimulus incoming with up to 3.5 trillion in tax hikes. Everything is still pointing to the inflationary narrative. Grinding people between high taxes and inflation will be all the rage for the next 4-8 years.
This is all stagflationary and the bond market sees it. Commodities see it as well. Note that they are holding up pretty well considering the move in the dollar.
Ags all limit up - corn, soybeans wheat
Corn Stocks Down 3 Percent from March 2020
Soybean Stocks Down 31 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Down 7 Percent
Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2021 totaled 7.70 billion bushels, down 3 percent from March 1, 2020. Of the
total stocks, 4.04 billion bushels were stored on farms, down 9 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.66 billion
bushels, are up 5 percent from a year ago. The December 2020 - February 2021 indicated disappearance is 3.59 billion. bushels, compared with 3.38 billion bushels during the same period last year.
Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2021 totaled 1.56 billion bushels, down 31 percent from March 1, 2020.
Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 594 million bushels, down 41 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks,
at 970 million bushels, are down 22 percent from last March. Indicated disappearance for the
December 2020 - February 2021 quarter totaled 1.38 billion bushels, up 39 percent from the same period a year earlier.
All wheat stored in all positions on March 1, 2021 totaled 1.31 billion bushels, down 7 percent from a year ago. On-farm. Stocks are estimated at 284 million bushels, down 16 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 1.03 billion bushels, are down 4 percent from a year ago. The December 2020 - February 2021 indicated disappearance is 388 million bushels, 9 percent below the same period a year earlier.
Durum wheat stocks in all positions on March 1, 2021 totaled 42.7 million bushels, down 17 percent from a year ago.
On-farm stocks, at 22.6 million bushels, are down 4 percent from March 1, 2020. Off-farm stocks totaled 20.1 million
bushels, down 28 percent from a year ago. The December 2020 - February 2021 indicated disappearance of 18.9 million. ushels is 46 percent above the same period a year earlier.
Just when I started to think maybe my trip was not worth it lol
HD homebuilders... Raging bull
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